Dutch Renewable GO Overview July 2022: Stable supply with lower demand

Main points for July 2022:

• Dutch GO supply was stable with a slight 1% decrease.
• Demand continued to decrease by 14% possibly attributed to lower electricity consumption during the warmer summer months.
• High local demand for Dutch GOs persists (50% of all cancelled GOs in July).
• Net imports of GoOs into the country decreased by 62% likely due to lower local demand and higher exports.
• Exports of Dutch GOs increased five-fold likely due to increased demand in continental Europe.

Supply of GOs in the Netherlands remained stable in July

According to the most recent statistics from Certiq, when compared to June 2022, GoO supply in the Netherlands was fairly stable with a slight 1% decrease from 3.15 TWh to 3.12 TWh of issued GoOs in July 2022. It is of note that although Wind production in the Netherlands was around 6% above the norm it was still slightly lower in July by 0.3% when compared to June.

Cumulative issuances until July 2022 were slightly over 23 TWh having increased by 16% compared to the same period in 2021.

Demand for GOs decreased by 14% in July with the highest demand for Wind GOs

Demand also continued to decrease with 3.8 TWh of GoOs cancelled in July 2022 down by 14% when compared to levels cancelled in June 2022 (4.4 TWh). This decrease in demand could be partly attributed to lower electricity consumption levels usually seen closer to the summer months. Additionally, market activity is generally low in the summer periods as most market participants are on summer vacations.

Cumulative cancellations until July 2022 were slightly over 39 TWh having increased by 4% compared to the same period in 2021.

Wind GOs continued to have a majority share of cancelled GOs standing at a significant 70% share (2.66 TWh) followed by Solar (0.55 TWh) and Biomass (0.33 TWh) GO cancellations. 

High local demand for Dutch renewable GOs persists at 50% of demand in July 2022

Domestic renewable energy GOs continue to make up the largest share of cancelled GOs in the Netherlands at 1.89 TWh in July having a 50% share of the country's total GoO demand in July. In contrast to the preceding month, local demand increased by 10% or 0.2 TWh. This was followed by Norwegian and French renewable GOs with 0.30 and 0.28 TWh cancelled respectively. 

Net imports of renewable GOs decreased by 62% likely due to significant exports and lower local demand in July 2022

Net imports in July 2022 decreased by 62%, with 0.92 TWh of net imports compared to 2.4 TWh in June; this could be attributed to a significant increase in exported certificates from the Netherlands in July when compared to the month before.

In July 2022, Italy was the leading country of origin for imported GOs (0.5 TWh) followed by Denmark (0.4 TWh) and Portugal (0.3 TWh). Wind GOs dominated as the most imported type of foreign Guarantee of Origin at an 84% share of the total with most originating from Italy at 0.45 TWh up from 0.1 TWh imported from the country last month. Hydro GOs were a distant second, comprising 10% share of the total GoO imports mostly originating from Portugal.

Exports of Dutch GOs for renewable electricity significantly increased five-folds in July

There was a significant increase in the exportation of Dutch GOs in July. Last month GoO exports were reported to have increased nearly five-fold from 0.34 TWh to 1.66 TWh, likely due to increasing demand in continental Europe. Biomass GOs dominated as the most exported type of Dutch GO at a 57% share followed by Dutch Wind GOs.

Exports of Dutch renewable GoOs were mainly to Norway (0.7 TWh), predominantly from Biomass (0.5 TWh) and Wind (0.1 TWh) technologies. This was followed by exports to Germany (0.4 TWh) mainly from Wind (0.3 TWh) and Solar (0.06 TWh).