Thursday, 14 July 2022
On July 7th, the AIB published the new version of its members’ statistics, GOs issuances, cancellations, exports, and imports as of May 2022 (included). While the first semester of 2022 is not yet over, we decided to stop here and focus on the first five months of 2022.
Main points:
Let us focus first on the issuances of GOs, all AIB members included. We chose to select a two-year window, so that makes us start in May 2020.
Transaction issuances are usually higher in Q1 (January-March) as some market players try to issue their GOs in the new year to get increased GO validity in some countries as well as due to disclosure deadlines for many AIB members countries being in March. This can be seen in the first slide, as January, February and March are usually among the biggest months in terms of issuance (especially for Hydro).
The month-to-month comparison by technology reveals two interesting findings:
- Hydro issuances have dramatically decreased (- 29 TWh). Since September 2021, every month issuance level of Hydro GOs is lower than the same month the year before (January 22 vs January 21, for example).
- On the contrary, Wind GOs issuances have increased by more than 43 TWh during the period May 21 – May 22 compared to May 20 – May 21. The months of February and March 2022 have been particularly fructuous for Wind GOs issuances, accounting for an almost 15 TWh increase compared to 2021 (from 28 to 43 TWh).
Logically, the share of Wind GOs issuances (amongst all GO issuances, including fossil and nuclear) has increased, reaching 30.20% in May 2022. Far from the approximate 55% level where it has been from May 2020 to October 2021, the Hydro share of GOs issuance is now down 44.37%, its lowest in the past two years. The high prices witnessed for Nordic Hydro for the 2022 vintage year (and forward years) might not be stranger to it.
Nonetheless, overall, most GOs were issued (not thanks to Hydro then…) in the first five months of 2022 compared to 2021, as can be seen on the graph below. Compared to 2020, that is a 15.7% increase.
Despite having lost a lot of issuances during the past two years, Hydro GOs is still leading when it comes to Exportations, but its share is decreasing. The month of January 2022 has been spectacular and a record month for three technologies: Hydro, Wind and Biomass.
Not only the technology breakdown is interesting to watch, but also the country breakdown. For that, we looked at the four biggest exporters in 2021 export-import ratio for the past two years.
How? It is calculated simply by dividing the imports to the exports.
What does it tell us?
Not every country and month is equal: apart from Norway, each country has an unstable export-import ratio. It can be explained by many factors (climate and thus renewable production, countries’ specifications, etc.).
Several months saw very high ratios, especially for France and Italy, mainly due to the very low imports these specific months, of course conjointly with an increase in exportations.
We will release another update once the June statistics are released (by mid-August), as well as specific country’s profiles (Norway, France, Germany) to go more in-depth in the figures.
If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out to me at leo@greenfact.com