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AIB Q2 2021 Overview - Updated Summary

Wednesday, 08 September 2021

Important Note: 

The following is a corrected version of the article published on August 5th. It has come to the attention of Greenfact that there was an error in the analysis of the AIB statistics, especially regarding the reported cancellation figures. This has been corrected and updated in the current published version.

Statistics reported here are sourced from the AIB and it is important to note that moving forward these figures may change due to a lag in reported figures from certain countries to the AIB. 

Highlights:

  • Issuances grew by 7.8% in Q2 2021 mainly due to growth in new renewable capacity.
  •  European GO cancellations decreased by 3.8% in Q2 possibly due to some market participants holding off on purchasing volumes as GO prices increased.
  • Cancellations peaked in the month of April at 91.97 TWh while issuances were highest in June at 67.1 TWh.
  • Exports and imports of GOs saw increases of 20% and 19% in transactions respectively, suggesting growth in market activity.

The latest Q2 2021 AIB statistics showed that issuances increased by 7.8% while cancellations decreased by 3.8% when compared to the same period last year. The transfer of GOs during Q2 2021 increased by 11% while expiries remained flat. 

Exports and imports of GOs saw increases of 20% and 19% respectively, showing continued cross-border trading activity and an increase in demand from new and old member states within the AIB region. 

European Guarantees of Origin issuances in Q2 increased for most technologies as per the graph above. GO issuances for unspecified renewable technologies increased the most by 38%, followed by Solar (27%), Wind (20%), and Biomass (19%) meanwhile GO issuances for nuclear technologies decreased by 17%compared to Q2 in 2020.

Interestingly, GO issuances for fossil fuel technologies also increased in Q2 compared to the same period in 2020 by 12%, the issuance of non-renewable GOs is partly due to countries like the Netherlands, Switzerland, and Austria that have full disclosure policies in place. 

European GO issuances in Q2 were highest for the month of June 2021 (67.1TWh).  

Increases in issuances could also be partly attributed to GO auctions that took place, the influx of corporate demand both old and new that are the main drivers of this market looking to be green, as well as new renewable energy and supporting developments in Europe. 

For example, in France, monthly disclosure has been in force since the beginning of the year, which has coincided with all 2021 production available at the auctions being sold. In its most recent auctions in July for April 2021 production GOs, over 3 TWh of supported GOs were auctioned of which all of the offered volumes were sold. Additionally, key updates to the French legislation are expected to further reinforce the French Auction and boost the demand for French GOs. 

From April to June 2021, monthly cancellations of GOs began to drop which is not surprising post-March disclosure deadlines. The highest cancellations were in April at 91.9 TWh. 

Interestingly, a contacted market participant had mentioned that 

"In April we particularly witnessed an influx in demand from usual clients but also witnessed newer demand coming in."

GO cancellations between April and May were lower than the figures reported in 2020. However, cancellation figures in June were slightly higher than the same period last year. This decrease in cancellations could be attributed to some market participants holding off on purchasing volumes as they observed the direction of GO prices that have been increasing since Q1 with the hopes that prices levels would decrease, and perhaps opting for more flexibility by holding the GOs in their account longer rather than cancelling. However, an array of factors including supply concerns due to drier than normal hydrological conditions in most of Europe has caused GO prices to rise steadily.  We observed in June that some market participants had reported an uptick in clients wanting to hedge their current and especially forward year portfolios from increasing GO prices. 

Outlook for rest of 2021

The outlook for the European GO market for the rest of 2021 seems to be positive and most contacted market participants seem to have increased bullish sentiments. As the European Commission continues to release more robust policies to support the bloc's net-zero emission aspirations by 2050  it is expected that more and more corporations will seek out various tools like GOs to support their green efforts. Furthermore, as corporations continue to move towards "normal" operations during the COVID pandemic we can expect an increase in electricity consumption compared to last year.

 A contacted broker mentioned:

"we see a continued increase in demand in the market, we have witnessed more and more new corporations entering the market. Additionally with new members entering the AIB, there is optimism around the market."

There has been some concern around the supply of certain GO products like the Nordic Hydro and EU Wind due to the drier than normal hydrological conditions in the Nordics and the lower than normal wind conditions in various regions in Europe which could result in a lower than expected GO supply that could continue to place upward pressure on European GO prices.

The beginning of Q3 marked the launch of Portugal´s GO auction that took place on 28 July, all 2021 production volumes auctioned (Hydro, Solar, Wind, and Thermal) were sold supporting claims of continued growing demand. As more countries join the AIB we can expect an influx of new demand and supply in the market.