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AIB 2020 GO statistics summary: Is the COVID-19 effect visible?

Friday, 02 October 2020

Important Note: Statistics reported here are solely for Renewable Energy GOs.

Key highlights:

  • Issuances in Q2 of 2020 up by 23%
  • Cancellations in 2020 Q2 also up by 11%
  • COVID-19 effect not yet fully observed but expected in the final quarter of 2020

In the latest AIB statistics for January-August 2020, the highest increase was in the transfer and issuance of GOs that increased by 13% and 12% respectively when compared to the same period in 2019. 

Cancellations and saw an almost equal percentage increase when compared to the previous year having increased by 5%.

After March 2020, GO issuance peaked in May but began to decrease with issuance in August 2020, 54% lower when compared to January. However monthly issuance in 2020 was mostly higher when compared to 2019 and 2018 except in August where issuance decreases by 23% and 20% when compared to the same period in 2019 and 2018 respectively. 

2020 Q2 vs 2019 Q2 

When comparing 2020 Q2 transactions to 2019 Q2 statistics we find that issuance and cancellation increased by 23% and 11% respectively.

From April to August 2020 , monthly GO cancellations began to decrease which historically isn't an unusual trend.  However, when compared to the previous two years, cancellations in 2020 were higher except in August where cancellations significantly decreased by 43% and 44% compared to 2019 and 2018 respectively.

Is the COVID-19 effect visible?

The COVID-19 impact is not observed in the 2020 GO cancellation statistics of Q2 as demand in that quarter was higher by 31% and 57% when compared to Q2 of 2019 and 2018 respectively. In the 2020 Q3 statistics that only include data for July and August, we begin to see a slight decline in GO cancellations.

We expect to possibly see the effects of COVID-19 on the GO markets moving into Q4 of 2020, paying attention to countries like Germany who cancel the most GOs within the market and additionally have an annual disclosure deadline beginning of November. 

A further breakdown of the recent AIB statistics in terms of key countries and technology and more will follow soon.